U.S. vs International Stock Performance
October 14, 2024 — Over the last 20 years U.S. stocks and bonds have meaningfully outperformed their global peers, both in absolute terms, and on a risk-adjusted basis. The next chart shows the average annualized excess returns [1] of different asset classes, plotted against their annualized volatility. The returns of international asset classes, highlighted in […]
October 2024 Update
October 2, 2024 — The major market event in September was the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut following the September 18th Federal Open Market Committee meeting. There was broad consensus the Fed would cut rates, though the 50 basis points (as opposed to 25) and perhaps the tone of Jay Powell’s press conference surprised […]
September 2024 Update
September 2, 2024 — After a bit of an early-August swoon, the stock market came roaring back in the last few weeks of the month. The S&P 500 finished up 2.4%, though certainly in the early days of August, that did not feel like a particularly likely outcome. In client conversations a few days into […]
August 2024 Update
August 1, 2024 — Despite a partial reversal on the final trading day of the month, July saw a large momentum crash with past winners (tech, MTUM) underperforming and past underperformers (small caps, value stocks, REITs) having a stellar month. More broadly, much of what’s been out of favor for the last year had a […]
July 2024 Update
July 1, 2024 — June of 2024 was a good month for financial markets. Leading the pack were (again) technology stocks, with the NASDAQ up 6% on the month. Close in second place were emerging market ex-China stocks, largely driven by India, Taiwan, and South Korea, all of which had large rallies in the month. […]
June 2024 Update
June 2, 2024 — After a weak April, markets bounced back in May, with the S&P 500 staging a breathtaking rally in the final few hours of trading on Friday, May 31. For the month, most asset classes were up, with utilities outpacing even the tech-heavy NASDAQ to be the monthly performance leader (more on […]
May 2024 Update
May 3, 2024 — From the end of March until the end of April, the market had a serious rethink about the path of monetary policy for the rest of 2024. March ended with the market pricing in three 25 basis-point rate cuts by the Fed over the next 12 months. As we’ve written in […]
April 2024 Update
April 3, 2024 — As hints of spring emerged in an unseasonably warm March, markets continued to rally, with the S&P 500 up over 3%. Gold was a strong performer on the month, as were many of the prior-year laggards, like utilities, midcaps, and small caps. We wrote about our views on gold — positive […]
March 2024 Update
March 3, 2024 — February was an interesting month in financial markets. Nvidia stock continued its incredible run on the back of a huge earnings beat. Tech did very well (again). Talk of tech bubbles has become pervasive, though serious people have pushed back against the tech doomsayers. (Our view is that tech stocks are […]
February 2024 Update
February 4, 2024 — Markets continued their strong performance in January of 2024, though it was hard to live up to the incredible returns of November and December of 2023. However, as the next table shows, the strong aggregate performance in January hid much variability when looking at individual markets. One theme for the month […]